Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.950633 2.058237 2.170958 2.298256 2.438521 2.588934 2.763198
2025-04-20 1.803660 1.954870 2.120702 2.317581 2.546984 2.808443 3.132839
2025-04-27 1.720516 1.900172 2.103747 2.354525 2.659509 3.024446 3.503990
2025-05-04 1.658479 1.859166 2.092619 2.389076 2.762943 3.229822 3.876421
2025-05-11 1.583449 1.795031 2.046100 2.372515 2.796181 3.344007 4.137205
2025-05-18 1.521215 1.741057 2.006435 2.358640 2.827693 3.453885 4.399504
2025-05-25 1.464253 1.689538 1.965504 2.338376 2.846371 3.544396 4.640599
2025-06-01 1.413660 1.642866 1.927303 2.317836 2.861025 3.627690 4.877625
2025-06-08 1.377144 1.611832 1.906871 2.318582 2.903527 3.752623 5.193916
2025-06-15 1.352308 1.594223 1.902402 2.339727 2.975100 3.925604 5.612698
2025-06-22 1.308925 1.550574 1.861179 2.307023 2.964857 3.970067 5.812905
2025-06-29 1.266993 1.507198 1.818351 2.269474 2.944244 3.995131 5.979676
2025-07-06 1.221627 1.458396 1.767124 2.218584 2.901864 3.983856 6.081922
2025-07-13 1.204386 1.446343 1.765339 2.238609 2.969467 4.160714 6.582187
2025-07-20 1.193477 1.442149 1.773828 2.273551 3.062233 4.389372 7.236729
2025-07-27 1.182455 1.437217 1.780787 2.306137 3.153036 4.624179 7.962293
2025-08-03 1.156750 1.411246 1.756900 2.290523 3.162816 4.710635 8.361450
2025-08-10 1.133305 1.387641 1.735451 2.277437 3.175611 4.803539 8.799065
2025-08-17 1.109301 1.362539 1.710935 2.258321 3.176565 4.873076 9.193475
2025-08-24 1.086447 1.338404 1.686990 2.238938 3.175613 4.938394 9.594249
2025-08-31 1.070587 1.323623 1.676126 2.239642 3.209838 5.078781 10.255113
2025-09-07 1.060959 1.317315 1.677375 2.259595 3.279619 5.301777 11.253317
2025-09-14 1.037669 1.290969 1.648107 2.228731 3.254452 5.316363 11.572147